Volatilità geopolitica e protezionismo rimodellano i flussi FX e macro globali

Escalating Geopolitical Risk and Energy Volatility

Geopolitical instability in the Middle East is acting as a primary driver of market volatility and inflationary pressure. Following Iranian retaliatory strikes against US positions in Jordan [2], Brent crude oil prices have surged, with prices moving into the $95-$96 range [20]. Specifically, Brent crude rose 4.59% to $94.65 per barrel following US-Iran tensions. This spike in energy costs is contributing to broader inflation expectations, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to implement interest rate cuts.

The impact of these tensions extends beyond immediate commodity pricing. The escalation of military attacks is fueling inflation concerns in the US, contributing to a government bond selloff and downward pressure on major indices, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq composite. Furthermore, rising petroleum costs are already impacting the aviation sector, with three major Chinese airlines reporting losses of 38.7 billion due to fuel price increases.

Divergent Monetary Paths and Sovereign Yields

A significant divergence is emerging in global monetary policy and sovereign bond markets. While the US faces upward pressure on yields, the Bank of Israel surprised markets by announcing a 0.25% reduction in its benchmark interest rate to 3.25% annually. This move preceded a rise in the US dollar against the shekel, with the representative rate crossing the NIS 3 threshold.

Global government bond yields are experiencing notable upward momentum:

• The US 10-year yield reached 4.816%, its highest level since late 2023.
• The UK 10-year yield hit 5.29%, its highest since August 2007.
• The German 10-year yield rose to 3.39%.

This environment of rising yields is supporting a stronger US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index rising nearly 1% to 99.67. Conversely, emerging market currencies are facing headwinds; for example, the Thai Baht weakened to a one-month low of approximately 33.33-33.35 per USD.

The Shift Toward Regionalism and Protectionism

The era of global free trade fluidity is facing structural challenges as economic activity shifts toward regional blocs and protectionist regimes. The European Union has implemented a new steel market protection regime as of July 1, which allows approximately 18.3 million tons of steel annually under quota, while applying a 50% tariff on imports exceeding those levels.

Despite these headwinds for traditional free trade, an "industrialization wave" is gaining momentum in the Global South, largely supported by integration with Chinese supply chains. Key indicators include:

• Vietnam's GDP grew 8.18% in the first half of 2026, supported by 9.86% growth in industry and construction.
• Cambodia's garment exports surged 16.88%.
• ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with intermediate goods accounting for over 60% of bilateral trade.
• China's 2025 exports to Africa totaled $225 billion, with 75% consisting of capital and intermediate goods.

Energy Security and Structural Transitions

The volatility in energy markets is driving two distinct trends: immediate demand for fossil fuel hedging and a structural shift toward renewable energy contracts. In the European PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) market, companies are increasingly using renewable contracts to ensure cost visibility, as wholesale electricity prices can reach €120-150/MWh compared to PPA prices of €60-85/MWh.

In the fossil fuel sector, higher export volumes and prices continue to support revenues. Malaysia's Petronas, for instance, reported a 4% increase in H1 2026 profit after tax to MYR 27.2 billion, driven by a 17% rise in gross LNG sales to 20.29 million metric tons [14].

Fragility in Global Travel and Consumer Spending

Macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical shifts are creating headwinds for international travel and related FX-sensitive sectors. In India, a push for "swadeshi" (domestic) spending—encouraged by Prime Minister Modi's appeal for citizens to choose domestic destinations—is impacting outbound tourism flows.

Other consumer-facing sectors are also showing signs of fragility:

• US-driven economic sanctions on Cuba have contributed to a 49.8% year-on-year decline in travelers during the first seven months of 2026 [5].
• In Mexico, while remittances reached a record average of $426 per household in July, the real value in pesos decreased by 6.6% compared to July 2025 due to inflation and a strong peso.
• In China, consumer electronics prices are adjusting upward, with flagship smartphone models increasing by 800 to 1,000 yuan due to surging storage chip costs.

What to watch

• Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges and their subsequent impact on Brent crude oil stability and global inflation data.
• US employment data and the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book on Wednesday, September 2.
• The Supreme Court's decision regarding the regulatory jurisdiction request from New Jersey officials over prediction market-based sports wagering.
• Implementation of "moderately loose" monetary policy by the People's Bank of China to support economic growth.