Verschillende paden in opkomende markten: AI-groei en inflatoire wrijving

Technological and Healthcare Momentum

A distinct strength is emerging within specific high-growth sectors, particularly in Chinese technology and Indian healthcare. In Hong Kong, Tencent's unveiling of its Hy-Image-3.5-Preview generative AI model, which is capable of 4K resolution, triggered a 5.02% rise in its share price in a single session [3]. This technological momentum provided a significant boost to large-cap internet proxies, with Naspers and Prosus adding over R89bn to their combined market capitalizations [3].

Parallel to this tech-driven expansion, the healthcare sector in India is showing signs of fundamental strength. Crisil Ratings has upgraded the outlook for Metropolis Healthcare Limited from "stable" to "positive," while maintaining a "Crisil AA-" rating [8]. This improved credit outlook is supported by expectations of organic revenue growth and increased profitability [8]. Furthermore, specialized global healthcare niches appear well-positioned for long-term expansion; the global veterinary drugs market is projected to reach USD 53.05 billion by 2034 with a 6.44% CAGR, while the global lupus nephritis market is expected to reach USD 4.08 billion by 2034 at an 8.5% CAGR.

India's Growth vs. Monetary Fragility

India presents a complex macroeconomic picture where strong domestic recovery meets potential monetary tightening. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised its India growth aim to 7% [16], and Fitch has increased its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.9% from 6.4% [18]. This growth appears supported by firm private consumption and accelerating public infrastructure spending [16].

However, this growth trajectory faces headwinds from weather-related inflation risks. Both Fitch and the ADB have noted that a strengthening El Nino and below-normal monsoon rainfall could trigger inflation shocks [16]. These risks have made the monetary policy outlook fragile, with Fitch estimating a 25 bps RBI rate hike in October, a view shared by S&P Global Ratings [18]. While India remains one of only two regions identified by a WEF survey as experiencing rising incomes, the necessity for a tighter policy stance remains a primary concern for regional stability [16].

Global Disinflation and Localized Shocks

On a macro level, global inflation concerns have seen some relief due to a continued decline in crude oil prices and optimism regarding a potential diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran conflict following a three-hour meeting between officials [17]. The decline in oil prices acts as a disinflationary tailwind that may reduce the pressure for further interest rate hikes globally [17].

Despite this easing global trend, localized supply-side shocks are creating pockets of instability. In Bangladesh, fuel prices rose by 20 taka per liter, which subsequently drove bus fares up by 17 paisa per kilometer and increased launch fares by 17-20% [17]. Similarly, in Taiwan, although the ADB maintains a 2% inflation forecast for the year, recent data showed rates rising to 2.6% in June and 2.5% in July due to energy and food costs [17]. While AI-driven growth in Taiwan remains strong, the ADB warns that a high base effect from the 14.1% growth seen in the first half of the year may lead to a slowdown in 2025 [17].

Structural Shifts in Real Estate and Energy

The real estate sector is undergoing a significant structural transformation, moving away from pure expansion toward a high-quality, high-resilience cycle following "828" new policies. This shift has created a bifurcated market. While the broader mass-market sector faces "total pressure" and declining profit margins—with 2025 average operating profits for top-tier brand developers (the 10-strong, 20-strong, and 50-strong tiers) expected to decrease by 4.10%, 102.14%, and 158.54% respectively—the luxury segment remains resilient [2]. This is evidenced by a ₹711 crore (approximately $85M) ultra-luxury residential tower deal in Mumbai. Furthermore, the secondary market has become dominant, now accounting for 52% of transactions.

In the energy sector, emerging markets are leaning toward increased cooperation and decarbonization. China and ASEAN are exploring new energy cooperation, and the Australian Energy Minister has visited India and Saudi Arabia to strengthen energy security. Additionally, Ethiopia has joined an international coalition for lower-carbon blended cement ahead of COP32. While the "profit logic" for new energy may be shifting due to record-high installation levels, the macro theme is supported by these expanding bilateral partnerships and specialized decarbonization efforts in heavy industry.

Geopolitical Fragmentation and Capital Flows

The stability of emerging markets is being tested by heightened geopolitical fragmentation. At the 81st UN General Assembly, leaders are addressing escalating conflicts in Ukraine and Iran's nuclear program [11]. This environment of fragmentation is characterized by increasing trade, investment, and technology barriers.

Financial flows are also reflecting this shift in sentiment. China has significantly increased its gold imports, spending $158.8 billion from January to August, which surpasses its total 2023 gold import value of $96.5 billion [13]. Concurrently, China's U.S. Treasury holdings fell to $618 billion in July, marking the lowest level since August 2008 [13]. While "middle-power" cooperation, such as the "Partners for Multilateralism" (P4M) initiative involving India, the EU, and Canada, seeks to counter power politics, the movement of capital from dollar-denominated assets into gold signals increased fragility in international financial stability.

What to watch

• The Reserve Bank of India's policy decisions in October and the impact of monsoon rainfall patterns on food prices.
• Potential diplomatic breakthroughs or meetings between U.S. and Iranian leadership, including a possible meeting between President Trump and President Masoud Pezeshkian.
• The progression of the international coalition for low-carbon cement leading up to COP32.
• Further developments regarding AI agent prototypes for the WeChat ecosystem and potential regulatory discussions regarding AI.
• The opening of new residential showrooms, such as the Greentown Jiading Juyuan "Yuhaitang" community in early October.