Opkomende Markten: Technisch Mompement en BRICS-Samenwerking worden geconfronteerd met geopolitieke tegenwinden

Momentum in Chinese High-Tech Manufacturing

The Chinese technology and manufacturing sectors are showing signs of robust underlying momentum, driven by significant earnings growth and rapid capacity expansion. Several technology firms have reported substantial year-on-year increases in net profit attributable to their parent companies, with four specific entities—Defu Technology, Cambridge Technology, Zhiwei Intelligent, and Kangxi Communication—reporting profit growth exceeding 100% for the first half of the year [4].

This growth is supported by tangible industrial scaling. Defu Technology reported August shipments of HVLP products at the 500-ton level, with HVLP4 products specifically accounting for approximately 70 tons [4]. Furthermore, Cambridge Technology has already met its annual capacity target of no less than 6 million before the end of 2026 and is currently expanding toward a 10-million-level target [4].

In the automotive sector, manufacturers are demonstrating resilience through strategic pivots. While pure electric vehicles face additional EU tariffs of up to 35.3%, Chinese manufacturers are shifting focus toward Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) to bypass these trade barriers and target markets in Europe and South Korea [5]. This shift, exemplified by aggressive pricing strategies for models like the Sealion 6 DM-i, suggests a competitive posture capable of navigating evolving global trade restrictions [5].

Strengthening South-South Cooperation and Energy Transition

The institutional framework of the "Global South" is strengthening through the expanded BRICS grouping, which now represents over 50% of the world's population and contributes more than 50% to global economic growth [19]. The 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi resulted in the unanimous adoption of the New Delhi Declaration 2026, with discussions centered on resilience, innovation, cooperation, and sustainability [20].

This diplomatic momentum is translating into concrete industrial and bilateral cooperation, particularly regarding the energy transition:

• The summit placed specific emphasis on clean energy, digital transformation, and sustainable development [20].
• There is a growing movement toward "Green BRICS" to prevent the "weaponisation of technology and critical minerals" from hindering progress [19].
• Bilateral targets are emerging, such as the $25 billion trade goal between Vietnam and India [19].
• Large-scale players are driving cross-border investment, such as the Indian group ACME, which has deployed over 8 GW of renewable energy capacity in India and is now seeking to expand clean energy investment and technology transfer into Vietnam [19].

Geopolitical fragmentation is also driving a push for alternative technological frameworks. Chinese President Xi Jinping has proposed a plan to support the use of open-source Artificial Intelligence (AI) to expand influence among the "Global South" [19]. This indicates a move toward a more multipolar landscape as non-Western blocs seek to foster unity through shared technological standards [19].

Structural Demographic and Labor Fragilities

Despite high-tech growth, significant structural shifts are creating downward pressure on labor stability and consumer demand in certain regions. China is experiencing a notable contraction in its education sector, with approximately 30,000 primary and kindergarten schools closing this year—comprising 21,400 kindergartens and 8,000 primary schools [4].

This contraction is linked to a long-term decline in birth rates, which fell from approximately 12 million in 2020 to 9.02 million in 2023, with projections suggesting a further drop to 7.92 million by 2025 [4]. This "population inversion" creates a downward transmission effect that threatens teacher employment and related consumer chains, including maternal products and schooling-related real estate [4].

In other emerging markets, labor and consumer stability face different pressures:

• In India, over 10 million central government employees and pensioners are awaiting potential Dearness Allowance (DA) increases, typically announced in September or October [4].
• In Australia, talent shortages have caused 32% of surveyed businesses to lose customers and 26% to see a decline in new business [4].

Trade Instability and Sectoral Volatility

The broader macro environment for emerging-market trade appears increasingly fragile due to rising geopolitical tensions and maritime security concerns. Indian Prime Minister Modi warned at the BRICS summit that geopolitical tensions and supply chain shocks threaten global stability [8]. These concerns are underscored by maritime security incidents, such as a commercial ship being struck near the Strait of Hormuz, which resulted in one death [8].

While some specific trade volumes remain strong—such as Cambodian exports to the US increasing three times—the overall stability of trade routes is under pressure [8]. Additionally, localized volatility is evident in the health sector. For example, Lilai Pharmaceutical, a dual A+H listed company with a market value of approximately 23.6 billion RMB, reported a 20% revenue drop in the first half of the year alongside a leadership transition where Liu Dapeng assumed both Chairman and President roles [4].

The travel sector also shows signs of sensitivity to regulatory and consumer shifts. In Thailand, Indian tourist arrivals dropped by approximately 12% in August following confusion over proposed visa fee changes [4]. In China, consumer data reveals a divergence between social media "buzz" and actual "staying intent," with high-volume cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou lagging in staying preference scores compared to cities like Huizhou [4].

What to watch

• The outcome of bilateral talks between India and China regarding border peace and ties following their September 12 meeting [8].
• The announcement of India's Dearness Allowance (DA) around the Navratri (starting October 11) or Dussehra (October 20) periods [4].
• The transition of the BRICS chairmanship to China, which is set to host the 2027 summit [19].
• The implementation of the new Beijing Mapping Regulations on January 1, 2027, regarding autonomous driving maps and navigation data [4].
• Future releases of Consumer Price Indices (CPI) in emerging economies to clarify inflationary perceptions [18].