Strategische verschuivingen in grondstoffen en tech-gedreven infrastructuur

Energy Volatility and Supply Chain Security

The energy sector is currently navigating a period of significant price correction and supply-side tension. Brent crude has fallen below $100 per barrel [11], with specific price targets appearing in Europe at $100 and in the United States at $92. This downward movement occurs against a backdrop of tightening global inventories; measurable oil inventories fell by 95 million barrels in August, contributing to a cumulative drawdown of 507 million barrels since February, which represents an average daily decrease of 2.8 million barrels.

Despite this correction, the floor for energy prices remains supported by persistent geopolitical risks. Supply disruptions in the Hormuz Strait and the Red Sea, alongside damage to Saudi Arabian oil pipelines, have introduced significant volatility [20]. These disruptions, combined with the thinning "safety cushion" of global inventories, increase the potential for price elasticity in the event of further supply shocks.

The intersection of energy and geopolitics is further complicated by regulatory and diplomatic pressures. The United States has set a September 23 deadline regarding the global shutdown of Iranian airlines [6]. Furthermore, the upcoming Japan-US summit on September 22 is expected to focus on strengthening alliances and cooperation regarding mineral supply chains [3, 4]. As major economies prioritize securing the minerals necessary for technological advancement, the stability of these supply chains remains a critical macro theme.

The Rise of AI-Driven Scientific Research

A fundamental shift is occurring in material sciences and drug discovery, driven by the integration of Artificial Intelligence for Science (AI4S). This technological evolution is moving beyond generative models toward agentic AI that can navigate complex biological and chemical variables. Recent data indicates measurable efficiency gains, including a "120-hour" continuous marathon covering 135 research topics and an increase in average reaction yields by four reactions through model-recommended ligands [16].

The impact of these advancements extends to the structural efficiency of R&D processes. AI-driven drug discovery agents are achieving unprecedented task success rates, even when managing the complexities of long-chain execution [16]. This transition toward automated, high-yield research supports the growth of specialized high-tech scientific infrastructure.

While these advancements offer significant upside for high-tech sectors, they also introduce new technical risks. The industry is closely monitoring the ability of AI systems to handle error accumulation during long-chain tasks and whether AI-recommended chemical reactions can successfully translate into scalable industrial yields.

Precious Metals and Central Bank Demand

The precious metals sector is exhibiting divergent trends, characterized by consolidation in gold and potential recovery in silver. Gold prices recently saw a decline, with spot gold falling 0.58% to approximately $4,352.77 per ounce and US gold futures dropping 0.79% to $4,390 per ounce. However, the long-term outlook remains supported by significant institutional demand.

Central banks have become major drivers of gold demand, with net purchases reaching 288.9 tons in Q2 2026—a 62% year-on-year increase—bringing the cumulative first-half purchase total to 345.4 tons. This demand is bolstered by geopolitical uncertainty, de-dollarization trends, and a bullish projection from the World Bank, which suggests a 37% increase in gold prices before the end of 2026.

Silver has also shown signs of momentum, posting a 2.9% rise, which has raised questions regarding its ability to reverse previous loss trends. While gold faces downward pressure from tightening monetary policy and rising oil prices, the broader precious metals sector remains supported by European investor wariness regarding U.S. Treasury risks.

Tech Momentum and Sector Divergence

The broader technology market has demonstrated intense investor positioning. On September 21, 2026, the QQQ moved +2.6% in a single day, a surge noted as being far outside its normal range [13]. This momentum is particularly evident in the AI ecosystem, where Taiwan's market capitalization has reached record levels due to its comprehensive AI industry infrastructure.

However, a clear divergence is emerging between high-tech specialized sectors and consumer-facing retail. While the humanoid robot industry is seeing formalization through new professional competency grading standards, the jewelry sector is showing signs of fragility. For instance, Qianye Jewelry has seen its stock fall nearly 93% year-to-date, with its market value dwindling to 27.6 million yuan as its actual controllers have been missing since September 2026.

The travel sector is also experiencing a period of rapid buying. The broad travel market measure (JETS) moved +2.3% in a single day on September 21, 2026, a move also considered outside its normal range. This momentum is supported by diverse consumer engagement, including hospitality refreshes in New York and London, and seasonal tourism shifts in Europe.

What to watch

• The outcome of the Japan-US summit on September 22 regarding mineral supply chain cooperation [3, 4].
• The September 23 deadline regarding the global shutdown of Iranian airlines [6].
• The performance of "dry-wet closed-loop" automated research systems, such as the Golab factory [16].
• The ability of silver to maintain its recent 2.9% upward momentum [20].
• The impact of the October 2-5 international water sports events in Shanghai on local tourism.