Wschodnie rynki: infrastruktura AI i zapotrzebowanie na zasoby napędzają zróżnicowane perspektywy

The Rise of AI Infrastructure and Specialized Manufacturing

A significant pivot toward B2B and infrastructure-heavy models is defining the current technological landscape. In the artificial intelligence sector, NVIDIA projects revenue growth of approximately 70% for fiscal year 2028 [18]. This demand is expanding beyond hyperscalers toward "sovereign AI," with model providers like MiniMax demonstrating a shift from consumer products to enterprise services; MiniMax reported that its B-end and open platform revenue grew 703.1% year-over-year, now accounting for 63.4% of its $117 million H1 revenue.

This momentum is supported by high-precision manufacturing in specialized components. In China, specialized manufacturers are demonstrating significant scale and localization:

• Yaguang Electronics holds a near 20% global market share in rectifying diodes, ranking third globally [16].
• Shunluo Xunda holds 15% of the global mobile inductor market, with an annual production of 5 billion units [16].

The ongoing AI trend continues to drive demand for strategic resources, including copper, silicon, and rare earths [4]. While this sector looks supported, the outlook remains sensitive to capital expenditure levels from major cloud providers.

Precious Metals and the Credit Hedge Narrative

The transition in market pricing from "whether to hike" to "how long rates remain high" has created a bullish outlook for gold as a credit hedge [3]. US inflation data (CPI and PPI) has shown a continuous decline for two consecutive months, reducing the necessity for further rate hikes in September. However, US Treasury 30-year yields have hit their highest levels since 2007 at 5.335%, fueling concerns regarding US dollar credit and fiscal stability as US debt exceeds $40 trillion [3].

Consequently, gold prices have surged, with London spot gold breaking $4,600/oz and approaching $4,700/oz [3]. While precious metals appear supported by declining inflation and fiscal concerns, broader emerging market equity momentum may remain sideways, contingent on whether US dollar liquidity recovers and if incremental policy support is implemented in upcoming quarters.

Energy Transitions and Inflationary Pressures

The macro outlook for emerging markets is being shaped by a sharp decline in global crude oil prices. WTI futures fell 0.55% to $81.91 per barrel, and Brent crude traded 2.66% lower at $86.22 per barrel, with WTI falling more than 6% over the previous two sessions to trade in the $80–$81 range. This downward trend in energy costs acts as a positive catalyst for major importers like India, where benchmark indices—the Sensex and Nifty—have traded higher in tandem with falling crude.

Simultaneously, there is a robust expansion in renewable capacity and the infrastructure required for grid stabilization:

• India's renewable energy capacity reached 288GW by June 30, 2026, representing 54% of its total installed capacity, with solar leading at 162GW (56%).
• Global pumped storage hydropower capacity surpassed 200GW in 2025.
• In China, the Heihe–Daqing natural gas pipeline project has commenced, expected to increase annual gas transmission capacity from 380 billion to 480 billion cubic meters.

While market-driven forces have pushed EV penetration in regions like West Bengal to 9.8% by 2025-2026, exceeding the 8.2% national average, the broader environment remains pressured by geopolitical friction and potential US-led sanctions [9].

Real Estate Stabilization and Regional Development

In China, residential demand in core cities appears to be undergoing a structural shift rather than a total collapse. While new home sales area fell 12.4% year-on-year in the first half of this year, the total area of new and second-hand home transactions saw a decline of only 1.9% compared to the same period last year. Notably, the share of second-hand home transactions rose from 46% in 2025 to 50.4% in the first half of this year.

This transition to second-hand markets, combined with stabilizing rental returns, suggests a foundation for residential markets to find a bottom. Long-term policy-driven support is also evident in regional strategic developments:

• Nanjing is serving as "key support" for the Shanghai (Yangtze River Delta) International Science and Technology Innovation Center.
• Hong Kong's internationalization index rose from 73.7 in 2025 to 74.6 in 2026.

Sectoral Fragmentation: Gaming, Sports, and Health

Certain sectors are exhibiting mixed or sideways performance due to internal fragmentation and localized risks. In the Macau gaming market, market share shifts are occurring among major operators: Wynn Macau's GGR market share rose 20 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 14%, while Sands China's share fell to 24% [17].

In the sports sector, growth in digital competition and urban renewal is evident, such as the e-sports exhibition at Taoyuan International Airport running until March 15, 2027 [14]. However, regulatory and reputational fragility remains a factor, highlighted by the PGA Tour's suspension of player Matt Gogel for gambling violations [15].

The health sector presents a similar tension between technological integration and physical fragility. While "HealthTech" is a growing sector among startups in India [16], the landscape is marked by acute risks, such as a massive landslide at the Nepal-Tibet border that resulted in at least 95 deaths [19]. Digital health infrastructure is seeing support through enterprise AI integrations designed to provide security controls for regulated sectors.

What to watch

• Future US employment and economic data to determine the likelihood of a 50bp Federal Reserve rate cut.
• The September-October window for potential incremental policy implementation in China to sustain earnings recovery.
• The performance of Taiwan's 33 e-sports athletes at the 2026 Asian Games in Nagoya this September [14].
• The impact of NVIDIA's next-generation "Blackwell Ultra" and "Rubin" GPU deployments on AI infrastructure demand.
• The announcement of Hong Kong's first five-year plan (2026-2030) on September 16.
• The progress of the 25–30 startups advancing to the Grand Finale of the Industry Institute Engagement Summit (IES) 2026 in New Delhi.