Gdzie rynki były przechylone 2026-10-02

The gist: US equities are leaning lower as significant headwinds from geopolitical volatility, rising mortgage rates, and cooling consumer demand outweigh pockets of strength in AI and pharmaceuticals. While AI-related technology and semiconductor themes show upward momentum, the broader market faces downward pressure from energy price risks and a lagging industrial sector.

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The gist: The energy market is leaning higher, driven by rising commodity prices from geopolitical instability and record-breaking U.S. production levels. While energy services and decarbonization infrastructure show upward momentum, the sector faces fragility in European housing and energy stability due to infrastructure attacks and macroeconomic pressures.

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The gist: Emerging markets are showing a sharp divergence, leaning lower overall due to heavy selling in China and Hong Kong and heightened Middle East geopolitical tensions. While Brazil-focused equities are seeing rapid buying and sector-specific support, the broader sentiment is weighed down by volatility in East Asian equities and rising global inflation pressures.

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The gist: Global macro direction is leaning higher for interest rates, the US Dollar, and inflation, driven by rising Eurozone inflation and hawkish Fed signals. While regional tech-driven growth in Japan shows significant upward momentum, overall macro stability remains fragile due to geopolitical volatility and rising energy prices.

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The gist: The direction for rates and bonds is conflicted, with conflicting signals between rising multi-decade highs in yields and recent downward pressure from cooling labor data. While US 10-year yields have reached levels not seen in approximately twenty years, recent US job growth slowing significantly to 29,000 payroll additions has led to a drop in yields.

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The gist: The FX market is leaning higher for the USD, which is approaching its third consecutive week of gains and a 17-month high. This strength is driven by rising global bond yields and a strengthening trend against currencies like the Mexican Peso, while Eurozone currencies face downward pressure from accelerating inflation and energy-driven volatility.

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The gist: EU equities are leaning lower, driven by significant downward pressure across major indices and heightened macro headwinds. While the EuroStoxx 50 showed some midday resilience due to falling oil prices, the overall balance leans bearish due to rising sovereign risk in France, energy supply tensions, and heavy selling in UK-exposed equities.

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The gist: The crypto market is leaning higher, driven by significant Bitcoin momentum, massive weekly fund inflows of $3.55 billion, and potential regulatory easing regarding asset custody in the US. While regional law enforcement scrutiny in certain areas suggests fragility for local financial activity, the broader sentiment is supported by institutional infrastructure growth and increased leverage availability on…

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The gist: The commodities market shows a fragmented outlook, leaning lower for precious metals and agricultural products while remaining sideways on broader trade flows. While US soybean inventories have decreased more than forecasted, the downward pressure on gold—which has seen significant weekly losses—appears to be a dominant driver for the metals complex.

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