Gdzie rynki były przechylone 2026-10-31

The gist: The rates and bonds market is showing conflicting signals, leaning lower due to rising systemic vulnerabilities linked to Middle East conflict, but facing upward pressure from rising inflation expectations. While ECB policy outlook appears sideways amid leadership transitions, the net direction is caught between sovereign debt stability concerns and upwardly revised HICP forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

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The gist: US equities are leaning lower following a period of significant volatility. The dominant driver is a sharp, single-day sell-off on 2026-10-30, where the S&P 500 and the SPY both experienced declines far outside their normal ranges. Watch: - The magnitude of continued volatility in the S&P 500 and SPY following the recent outsized downward moves. - Ongoing selling pressure within the US equities market.

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The gist: The energy transition sector shows a split outlook, with momentum leaning lower for electricity demand growth linked to the EV sector due to a significant deceleration in consumption. Conversely, the outlook leans higher for solar-plus-storage integration as the co-location of utility-scale solar with battery storage continues to expand.

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The gist: The global macro outlook is leaning lower, driven by significant downward pressure on broad market measures. While inflation data shows PCE rose by 0.3 percent ($65.2 billion) in June 2026, the dominant driver is a sharp, outsized contraction in the ACWI. Watch: - The magnitude of volatility in the ACWI, which saw a -1.7% single-day move on 2026-10-30, a level noted as being far outside its normal range.

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The gist: EU-health and job sectors appear to be moving sideways. The data across both sectors is characterized by isolated, localized headlines rather than broad macroeconomic shifts, providing no clear directional momentum for the wider market. Watch: - UK government policy updates regarding the expansion of the Healthy Babies programme and COVID-19 vaccination advice.

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