Où les marchés étaient en tendance 2026-09-20

The gist: The commodities market is leaning higher, driven primarily by significant momentum in precious metals. While energy and broader commodity prices show divergence or sideways movement due to unresolved geopolitical tensions in transit zones, gold is supported by heavy central bank accumulation, repatriation of reserves by European nations, and optimistic long-term price projections.

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The gist: The outlook for rates and bonds is leaning higher, driven primarily by rising US Treasury yields and recent central bank tightening. While some sectors are experiencing pullbacks due to these rising yields, the dominant momentum is shaped by the Federal Reserve's recent rate hike and the Bank of Japan's acceleration of monetary tightening.

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The gist: The crypto market is leaning higher, driven by unexpected strength in Bitcoin and significant performance gains in high-performance blockchain infrastructure. While macro headwinds like interest rate hikes in the US and Japan persist, the overall sentiment is supported by technical upgrades in specific networks and anticipation for the October period.

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The gist: US equities face a tug-of-war between strong AI-driven sector momentum and macro headwinds from persistent inflation. While semiconductor and clean energy themes lean higher due to supercycles and rising electricity demand, the broader market leans lower as the Federal Reserve raises rates and tech valuations reach 26-year highs.

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The gist: The net direction for EU equities is leaning lower, driven by significant selling pressure in major indices and volatility surrounding inflation, interest rates, and oil prices. While one data point suggests the index has outperformed the MSCI World and S&P 500, the weight of recent performance—including heavy volume selling in the DAX and losses in blue-chip stocks—points toward a downward trend.

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The gist: The global macro outlook is characterized by conflicting pressures, with energy prices and geopolitical risk premiums leaning higher while labor market stability and North American trade stability lean lower. While emerging market equities show upward momentum following index upgrades, global trade-sensitive foreign direct investment (FDI) appears fragile.

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The gist: The energy market is leaning higher, driven by significant geopolitical supply disruptions and rising inflationary pressures. While instability in the Middle East and drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure create supply shocks, the sector faces a split outlook as clean energy infrastructure shows strength while the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sector faces significant distress.

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The gist: The FX market is leaning higher for the USD, driven by the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point interest rate hike to a 3.75%-4.00% range, which saw the US Dollar Index jump 1.1% to 100.20 points. While major currency pairs appear sideways pending further macro data, the USD shows strength in specific emerging market contexts, such as the Cuban informal market where it rose 2.4% over the previous week.

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The gist: Emerging markets are showing a fragmented outlook, leaning higher on AI-integrated hardware and digital infrastructure while facing downward pressure in Chinese travel platforms due to regulatory investigations. The overall market direction appears sideways as geopolitical volatility from US-China diplomatic engagements offsets localized growth in ASEAN-China connectivity and specialized tech hardware.

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