Où les marchés étaient en tendance 2026-09-26

The gist: US equities appear to be trending sideways with a slight lean toward the lower side. While the S&P 500 has shown resilience by erasing earlier losses to close almost unchanged, the market is caught between conflicting signals: high-conviction insider buying in the housing sector versus significant insider selling in large-cap technology and rising Treasury yields.

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The gist: The global macro outlook is characterized by conflicting pressures, with a lean toward lower directionality in consumer and housing sectors due to rising interest rates and decelerating growth, while tech and energy transition themes show upward momentum.

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The gist: The outlook for EU equities is mixed, with a slight lean toward higher directionality as markets anticipate a positive opening following a pause in bond market volatility. While easing geopolitical tensions and stabilizing energy costs provide upward support, this is being countered by downward pressure on tech-sensitive sectors driven by rising US 10-year Treasury yields.

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The gist: The energy sector shows a broad leaning higher across infrastructure themes, driven by petroleum liquids pipeline completions, AI-related grid demand, and energy security concerns. While natural gas prices and demand appear to be heading lower, the overall balance leans toward increased investment in both traditional liquid infrastructure and clean energy transition projects.

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The gist: The FX market shows a leaning toward US Dollar strength, driven by stronger-than-expected US PMIs and rising Treasury yields, though this is being challenged by shifting expectations in the USD/JPY pair and long-term structural shifts toward local currency settlements in BRICS nations.

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The gist: The crypto market is leaning higher, driven by institutional integration, strong recoveries in major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and expansion into niche sectors like climate prediction markets and regulated iGaming.

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The gist: The market for rates and bonds is leaning higher on yields, driven by a global selloff in sovereign bonds and a shift in US Federal Reserve policy from "holding" to "re-tightening" [earnings-season, monetary-policy, geopolitics, inflation].

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The gist: Emerging markets are leaning lower, driven by sharp, out-of-range selling across major Asian equity indices. The sentiment is weighed down by a combination of rapid equity declines, rising inflation, and pressure on regional currencies. Watch: - The trajectory of Indian 10-year bond yields following their recent climb of more than 30 bps to a four-month peak.

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The gist: The commodities market shows a fragmented outlook, leaning lower on agricultural and rare earth stability due to trade frictions and rising yields, while leaning higher on critical minerals and cleantech infrastructure. The balance leans toward volatility as supply chain fragility and geopolitical tensions (specifically US-China trade relations) clash with a push for sustainable mineral supply chains.

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