Où les marchés étaient en tendance 2026-10-01

The gist: Global markets are showing a split sentiment, leaning higher on technology and energy-linked sectors driven by significant upward momentum in Asian equities, while leaning lower on housing stability and emerging market equities due to rising yields.

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The gist: The energy market is leaning higher, driven by a combination of supply-side constraints, geopolitical tensions, and surging demand from technological infrastructure. While diesel prices have hit nominal all-time highs in the US and refiners are restructuring logistics to ensure supply reliability, the expansion of AI data centers is creating a new, massive consumption requirement for energy.

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The gist: The rates and bonds market is trending higher on yields and lower on prices, driven by a global "shock" of multi-decade highs in sovereign borrowing costs. While US inflation data showed some downward revisions and a slower-than-expected August rise, the dominant momentum is characterized by intense selling pressure in US, UK, French, and Japanese government bonds.

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The gist: The FX market is leaning lower for many emerging market currencies and Asian denominations, while the USD shows signs of support. The balance leans toward USD strength and EM weakness, driven by expectations of further US Federal Reserve rate hikes and manufacturing/yield-related pressures, though specific pockets like the Dominican Republic's service-led growth provide a counter-signal.

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The gist: The crypto market is leaning higher, driven by strong momentum in Bitcoin and Ethereum and significant institutional accumulation of infrastructure assets. While Bitcoin's performance broke historical seasonal trends and ETF inflows reached $2.39B in 2026, the outlook is tempered by intensifying regulatory pressures and a 64% probability of further US interest rate increases.

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The gist: US equities appear to be trending sideways as conflicting sector drivers balance one another. While momentum is leaning higher for AI-related infrastructure, semiconductor design software, and defense technology, these gains are being offset by downward pressure in travel/aviation and a sideways outlook driven by intensifying regulatory oversight and moderating rate hike expectations.

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The gist: The commodities market shows a fragmented outlook with conflicting drivers for metals and energy. While gold faces a tug-of-war between lower-than-expected US PCE inflation and rising yields, energy commodities like Brent crude are leaning higher due to geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

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The gist: Emerging markets are facing a tug-of-war between sector-specific growth and broad macro headwinds. While logistics real estate, clean energy technology, and certain Indian industrial sectors show upward momentum, overall sentiment is leaning lower due to intensifying geopolitical and trade frictions.

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The gist: The outlook for EU and UK equities is leaning lower, driven by widespread market declines and significant volatility. The dominant driver is a sharp, outsized sell-off in the UK, evidenced by the FTSE 100 closing -1.7% on 2026-10-01, a move characterized as being far outside its normal range. Watch: - The momentum of the DAX, which is currently 5.33% below its August 28 yearly high.

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