Decelerating EV Demand and Shifting Solar Integration Patterns

Deceleration in electric vehicle electricity consumption

The momentum behind electricity demand growth driven by the light-duty electric vehicle (EV) sector in the United States appears to be cooling [1]. In the first half of 2026, electricity consumption for these vehicles grew by 8% compared to the second half of 2025 [1]. This represents a significant deceleration when compared to the 13–24% growth rates observed during previous six-month periods [1].

This slowdown follows a decline in vehicle sales that was triggered by the expiration of U.S. federal tax credits in September 2025 [1]. While total light-duty EV electricity use has more than doubled since the first half of 2023 to reach nearly 14 billion kilowatthours in the first half of 2026, the recent pace of growth suggests a shift in the demand trajectory [1].The cooling of this specific demand driver suggests that the energy-transition theme, particularly regarding the impact of transport on grid load, may face near-term fragility as policy incentives expire. The transition from high-growth double digits to single-digit growth indicates that the era of rapid, incentive-driven demand spikes may be pausing.

Structural shifts in solar and battery integration

While EV-related demand shows signs of slowing, the solar sector is undergoing a structural evolution through increased integration with battery storage [2]. As of September 2026, the share of new utility-scale solar capacity being co-located with operable battery storage has risen to over 16%, a substantial increase from the 2% recorded in 2017 [2].

Projections for the solar sector indicate that this integration trend is likely to continue in the near term and beyond:

• The share of co-located capacity is projected to reach 19% by the end of 2026 [2].
• Long-term plans indicate a rise to more than 30% for capacity scheduled for 2027 and 2028 [2].This shift suggests the solar sector is becoming more structurally integrated with storage technologies. This evolution allows operators to manage output based on wholesale prices, which may help mitigate the impact of falling wholesale prices in regions with high solar participation and support the increasing utility-scale role of solar.

Declining domestic gas supply in Colombia

In the Colombian energy market, a shrinking domestic natural gas supply is creating a heightened reliance on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports [3]. Domestic natural gas production has seen a consistent downward trend, falling from an average of 1,070 MMcf/d in 2022 to 772 MMcf/d in 2025 [3]. This decline continued into 2026, with production averaging 673 MMcf/d between January and August [3].

The contraction in supply is being driven by falling output in several major areas, including:

• Cusiana [3]
• Cupiagua [3]
• Pauto Sur [3]
• The offshore Guajira fields [3] The combination of declining domestic production and a government-declared national disaster due to an expected strong El Niño suggests a fragile domestic gas position. This environment creates a structural floor for gas demand, as the potential for drought to limit hydroelectric availability necessitates increased reliance on LNG imports to support power generation.

Diverging energy transition themes

The current data highlights a landscape of varying stability across different energy sub-sectors. The electricity demand profile for the transport sector is currently characterized by a loss of momentum following the removal of federal policy support [1]. In contrast, the utility-scale solar sector is moving toward a more sophisticated model of integrated storage, which may provide more stability to its role in the grid [2].

Meanwhile, the Colombian market is facing a supply-side squeeze in the natural gas sector [3]. The interplay between declining domestic field output and weather-related risks to hydroelectricity is shifting the market's reliance toward international LNG markets [3].Investors and analysts should note that while the "energy transition" is often viewed as a monolithic trend, the data shows highly localized and sector-specific dynamics. The transition in the U.S. is currently grappling with the expiration of fiscal incentives for EVs, while the solar sector is maturing through technological integration, and the Colombian market is managing a transition from domestic gas to imported LNG due to supply depletion and climate risks.

What to watch

• The actual percentage of solar additions coming online in the final three months of 2026 to determine if they meet the 19% co-location threshold [2].
• The availability of hydroelectric generation during the upcoming fall and winter seasons in Colombia [3].
• Any significant deviations in reported plans for 2027 and 2028 regarding the 30% solar-plus-storage co-location mark [2].
• Potential reversals in U.S. vehicle sales trends or the introduction of new federal incentives that could return EV electricity consumption growth to the 13–24% range [1].