Where markets were leaning on 2026-09-24

The gist: Global macro conditions are leaning lower for equities and sovereign bond prices, while interest rates, bond yields, and energy costs are trending higher. The dominant drivers are rising Treasury yields—with the US 10-year reaching its highest level since 2007—and geopolitical tensions driving Brent crude oil above $105 per barrel.

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The gist: The USD shows a leaning higher bias, supported by rising US Treasury yields and stronger-than-expected US economic and service sector activity. While there is localized downward pressure predicted for the USD against the Costa Rican Colón due to seasonal currency influxes, the broader sentiment leans toward USD strength and higher emerging market rates.

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The gist: The net direction for US equities leans lower, driven primarily by rising Treasury yields, intensifying geopolitical volatility, and tightening monetary conditions. While AI-driven technology remains a source of support, this momentum is being countered by fragility in the AI sector, rising mortgage rates impacting housing-sensitive equities, and legal/regulatory headwinds.

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The gist: EU equities are leaning lower, driven by geopolitical volatility, rising interest rates, and pressure from oil prices. While UK-based transport services show signs of leaning higher due to increased bus usage, the broader regional outlook is weighed down by declining indices and weak DAX futures. Watch: - Performance of the DAX and CAC 40 in response to energy and geopolitical volatility.

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The gist: The energy market is showing a fragmented outlook with conflicting drivers. While energy supply tightness, price volatility, and AI-driven power demand for infrastructure are leaning higher, sector profitability is leaning lower due to geopolitical tensions and regulatory headwinds. Watch: - Geopolitical tensions in the Iran-US conflict affecting LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

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The gist: The outlook for emerging markets is leaning lower, driven primarily by significant volatility in South Asia and economic headwinds in China. The dominant driver is the sharp, anomalous selling in the Indian NIFTY 50, which is being compounded by weakening Chinese consumer data and a shifting energy demand landscape.

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The gist: The commodities market is leaning higher, driven primarily by geopolitical supply risks in energy and increased supply risks for copper. While some sectors like crypto-commodity regulation remain sideways, the overall momentum is supported by emerging export corridors and new digital infrastructure for carbon markets.

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The gist: The rates and bonds market is leaning higher for yields and lower for bond prices, driven by a combination of rising US Treasury yields, central bank tightening, and robust economic data. While labor market stability and expanding business activity are supporting higher rates, the surge in yields is creating downward pressure on housing affordability and clean energy financing.

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The gist: The crypto market shows a conflicted outlook, with a slight lean toward lower directionality as rising yields, tightening US stablecoin regulations, and significant geopolitical friction from transnational crime weigh on sentiment.

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