Where markets were leaning on 2026-09-25

The gist: Emerging markets are leaning lower, driven by rapid, out-of-range selling across major Asian equity indices. The sentiment is weighed down by a combination of sharp index declines, rising inflation pressures reflected in sovereign debt, and weakening regional currencies.

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The gist: The market for rates and bonds is leaning higher on yields, driven by a global selloff in sovereign bonds and a shift in US Federal Reserve policy from "holding" to "re-tightening" [earnings-season, monetary-policy, geopolitics, inflation].

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The gist: The commodities market is leaning lower, driven primarily by downward pressure on global grain supplies and precious metals. While agricultural production forecasts are declining, rising US Treasury yields are weighing on risk assets and precious metals, and trade frictions are creating instability for US agricultural and rare earth commodities.

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The gist: The net direction for EU equities appears conflicted, with a slight lean toward lower performance due to rising global bond yields, geopolitical/macro headwinds, and weakness in industrial and tech-sensitive sectors.

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The gist: The crypto market is leaning higher, driven by institutional integration, strong recoveries in major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and expansion into niche sectors like climate prediction markets and regulated iGaming.

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The gist: The FX market is leaning lower for several emerging market currencies and safe-haven assets, primarily driven by US dollar strength and shifts in global trade architecture. While the USD appears supported by strong US PMIs and rising Treasury yields, emerging market currencies face pressure from both USD strength and BRICS-led initiatives to increase local currency settlements.

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The gist: The global macro outlook is characterized by a tug-of-war between rising inflationary/yield pressures and structural growth in energy and technology. While sovereign yields and inflation risks are leaning higher, the tech sector shows momentum despite valuation fragility, and the energy transition remains supported by infrastructure-driven growth.

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The gist: US equities are leaning lower, driven by a combination of rising Treasury yields, geopolitical instability, and weakness in the housing and retail-adjacent sectors. While AI-driven growth themes provide some upward support, the overall balance leans bearish as technical indicators for the Nasdaq 100 favor the bears and rising bond yields exert pressure on broader markets. Watch: - Movement in U.S.

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The gist: The energy market is leaning higher, driven by geopolitical friction, supply security concerns, and surging demand from AI-related infrastructure. While natural gas prices and demand show a downward lean based on recent spot price decreases, this is being outweighed by volatility in oil prices following maritime attacks and rising energy-driven inflation pressures.

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