Where markets were leaning on 2026-09-28

The gist: The global macro outlook is leaning lower, driven by tightening monetary conditions, rising yields, and concerns regarding inflation and growth. While bilateral trade improvements between the U.S. and China provide a localized upward driver, the broader sentiment is weighed down by a Federal Reserve rate hike, significant increases in US 10-year Treasury yields, and weakening consumer sentiment.

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The gist: US equities are facing a tug-of-war between AI-driven momentum and rising macro headwinds, with the net direction leaning lower. While semiconductor demand remains a supportive force, the balance is being pulled down by rising inflation fears, higher oil prices, and the shadow of more restrictive monetary policy. Watch: - Upcoming U.S.

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The gist: EU equities are showing a fragmented direction, leaning lower overall due to rising yields and geopolitical tensions, despite pockets of strength in German equities and AI-driven tech. While the broader market faces pressure—evidenced by the CAC 40 retreating toward the 8,000-point level and rising French OAT risk premiums—the balance is weighed down by a noted weakness in the technology sector, even as…

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The gist: Emerging market equities are leaning lower, driven primarily by significant volatility and rapid selling in the Indian region. While bilateral US-China trade flows and certain travel sectors show signs of strength, the overall sentiment is weighed down by the NIFTY 50's sharp decline and weakness in Indian consumer and tech sectors.

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The gist: The commodities market is showing a divergent split, with energy commodities leaning higher due to geopolitical tensions following the rejection of an Iranian proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, precious metals are leaning lower, facing downward pressure in international bullion and ETF prices, despite specific government-driven demand for gold in certain regions.

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The gist: The crypto market shows a leaning higher direction driven by institutional accumulation, a new bullish cycle, and expanded banking permissions, though this is tempered by sideways momentum due to political volatility and recent price declines.

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The gist: The FX market is leaning higher for the US Dollar, supported by a 25 basis point Fed rate hike and a rising US Dollar Index. While emerging market currencies face fragmented pressures—leaning lower due to equity downturns in India and economic contraction in Argentina, but showing strength in Hong Kong's export-driven demand—the overall balance leans toward USD strength and volatility in specific EM pairs…

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The gist: The energy market is leaning higher, driven primarily by geopolitical instability in the Middle East and rising oil prices. While high fuel and heating costs are creating inflationary pressures and economic headwinds in certain regions, this environment is simultaneously accelerating momentum in the energy transition, specifically regarding electric vehicle sales and battery technology innovation.

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The gist: The bond market is leaning lower as global yields face significant upward pressure. This trend is driven by US 10-year Treasury yields surging to 5.167% and Japanese 2-year yields reaching 31.5-year highs, creating a broader environment of rising rates that is weighing on rates-sensitive sectors and tech-heavy equities. Watch: - The continued compression of the "yield gap" as US Treasury yields rise.

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