Where markets were leaning on 2026-10-04
The net read we published that day, kept as a dated record. For where markets are leaning right now, see today's outlook.
Rates Bonds
The gist: Interest rates in both the US and Canada appear to be heading sideways. The US outlook is driven by a tension between inflation remaining "meaningfully above" the 2 percent target and recent "signs of disinflation," while Canadian rates are stabilizing following a pause in policy tightening. Watch: - Upcoming US data releases that will determine if the observed disinflationary trend continues.
Updated 2026-10-04 04:44 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Energy
The gist: The energy market is leaning higher, driven by surging electricity demand and robust LNG export volumes. This upward momentum is supported by record-breaking peak load data in the ERCOT region and consistent export averages in the first half of the year. Watch: - ERCOT hourly peak load levels following the recent record of 91.1 GW. - U.S. LNG export volume trends relative to the H1 average of 17.4 Bcf/d.
Updated 2026-10-04 04:44 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Us Equities
The gist: US equities appear to be moving sideways as regulatory uncertainty regarding SEC "pay-to-play" rule proposals creates a headwind. However, there is a notable upward lean within the semiconductor and memory sectors, which are providing a source of strength against the broader market's neutral direction.
Updated 2026-10-04 04:44 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Global Macro
The gist: Global macro inflation themes appear to be moving sideways, while regional equity markets are seeing significant volatility, specifically in Japan. The balance leans toward heightened regional activity following a sharp, out-of-range surge in the Nikkei 225. Watch: - The widening U.S. goods and services deficit, which rose to $88.6 billion in July 2026.
Updated 2026-10-04 04:44 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Crypto
The gist: The crypto market is leaning higher, driven by easing US monetary policy pressures. This upward momentum is evidenced by recent price rebounds in Bitcoin across major exchanges. Watch: - Price action stability following shifts in US 10-year Treasury yields.
Updated 2026-10-04 02:13 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Commodities
The gist: The commodities market appears to be moving sideways as regulatory frameworks undergo adjustments. The primary driver is a recent CFTC final rule issued on September 02, 2026, which modifies interest rate swap clearing requirements by removing mandates for swaps referencing specific rates [trade].
Updated 2026-10-04 02:13 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
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