Where markets were leaning on 2026-11-04

The gist: The rates and bonds market is experiencing divergent pressures, leaning lower on US Treasury yields due to election-driven shifts and a flattening yield curve, while facing upward pressure on interest rates globally.

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The gist: US equities are leaning higher following a period of significant, outsized upward movement. The dominant driver is a wave of rapid buying that saw the S&P 500 and SPY move far outside their normal ranges, a trend that appears to be part of a broader global move. Watch: - The impact of a Democratic sweep of both chambers of Congress on US futures. - Ongoing momentum from recent large-scale insider buying.

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The gist: Global equities are leaning higher following a day of rapid, synchronized buying that moved major indices far outside their normal ranges. This broad-based upward momentum is driven by significant gains across US, European, and global macro measures, though the outlook for Eurozone monetary policy appears increasingly restrictive due to accelerating inflation.

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The gist: Emerging markets are showing a fragmented outlook, leaning higher on Chinese monetary easing and high-tech value chains, but facing downward pressure from semiconductor supply chain disruptions and widening employment inequality.

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The gist: The commodities market is leaning lower, driven by a significant and anomalous single-day sell-off in the broad commodities measure (DBC), which dropped -3.9% on 2026-11-04. While broad commodities face downward pressure, precious metals like gold are leaning higher, supported by a falling US dollar and rising prices in specific regions like Pakistan.

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The gist: The energy sector is leaning lower following a period of extreme volatility and rapid selling. While geopolitical tensions and high oil sale prices have previously supported profitability, a massive -5.0% single-day drop in the broad energy measure (XLE) on 2026-11-04—a move outside its normal range—suggests a dominant downward shift in momentum.

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The gist: The crypto market is leaning lower, driven primarily by a massive $6.3bn security breach at Binance attributed to a North Korean state-backed actor, which is weighing on exchange sentiment and asset security trust.

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The gist: The US Dollar is leaning lower, driven by a "Democratic midterm sweep" in the US and a subsequent tumble in the dollar following the election results. While the EUR/USD pair appears stuck in a sideways range, the broader FX landscape is characterized by volatility stemming from shifting US geopolitical and fiscal policy stances. Watch: - US midterm election outcomes and their impact on the US Dollar.

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The gist: EU equities are leaning lower, driven by downward pressure on major indices like the Dax, EuroStoxx 50, and FTSE 100, alongside rising 10-year yields. While tech-adjacent sectors and broader market sentiment are weighed down by AI investment sustainability concerns and US political uncertainty, healthcare sectors appear to be moving sideways.

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