Gdzie rynki były przechylone 2026-08-26

The gist: The crypto market is leaning higher, driven by significant momentum in Bitcoin and Ethereum and a broader "debasement trade" linked to inflation concerns and quantitative easing. While assets have seen massive weekly gains, the market is currently in a sideways consolidation phase as it faces immediate resistance and profit-taking.

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The gist: US equities appear to be trending sideways as institutional positioning shifts amidst structural macro uncertainty. While growth-oriented tech, semiconductors, and certain aerospace/airline sectors show upward momentum, this is balanced by legal fragilities in tech and mixed conviction in the broader macro landscape.

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The gist: The outlook for rates and bonds is leaning higher, driven by persistent inflation metrics in the US and Eurozone that suggest rates may need to remain elevated or rise further. While specific European markets like Greece show improved debt-to-GDP stability, this is countered by rising political and fiscal risks in France and a sideways outlook for energy-transition financing.

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The gist: The global macro outlook is characterized by upward pressure on inflation, interest rates, and energy commodities, alongside a strengthening defense sector. While AI and space infrastructure themes show upward momentum, long-term consumer stability—particularly among young American males—appears fragile due to high engagement in "addiction economy" behaviors. Watch: - U.S.

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The gist: EU equities are leaning higher overall, supported by strong three-month performance and momentum in large-cap financials and tech, though the outlook remains fragile due to external volatility. While the travel sector is benefiting from easing energy-related headwinds, broader markets face sideways pressure from North American trade tensions and anticipation of US inflation data.

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The gist: The energy market shows a conflicting outlook with a lean toward higher prices driven by supply tightness and geopolitical risk, though this is being countered by downward pressure on oil prices from diplomatic developments.

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The gist: The commodities market is experiencing a sharp divergence in direction. Industrial commodities are leaning lower due to aggressive U.S. protectionism and tariffs on Canadian goods, while gold and alternative assets are leaning higher as part of a "debasement trade" hedging against U.S. fiscal risks.

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The gist: The outlook for emerging markets is mixed, with a lean toward higher momentum driven by expanding industrial infrastructure, China-centric trade corridors, and renewable energy capacity. However, this upward trend is countered by significant downside risks from intensifying geopolitical friction and localized physical catastrophes in the Himalayan region.

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The gist: The FX market shows divergent paths, with the Euro leaning higher due to accelerating Eurozone inflation and signals of further ECB tightening, while the Thai Baht and Romanian Leu appear to be leaning lower. Broader risk sentiment may find support as US Treasury yields for longer-dated maturities have fallen following intervention by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

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