Gdzie rynki były przechylone 2026-08-29

The gist: The outlook for rates and bonds is leaning higher, driven by a significant surge in U.S. interest rate expectations following hawkish signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. While global monetary policy appears to be leaning sideways as central banks balance inflation against stable activity, the immediate momentum is shaped by "stubbornly elevated" U.S. inflation and a stable labor market.

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The gist: The net direction for US equities leans lower as hawkish Federal Reserve signaling and persistent inflation concerns outweigh momentum in the technology sector. While AI-related infrastructure and semiconductor themes show significant strength, this is being countered by downward pressure across healthcare, aviation, energy, and sports betting sectors due to regulatory, legislative, and macroeconomic…

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The gist: The crypto market is showing a complex, mixed direction, leaning higher on macro-hedge themes and institutional infrastructure growth while facing significant fragility in mining equities and localized regulatory scrutiny.

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The gist: Emerging markets are facing a period of heightened macro fragility, with the net direction leaning lower due to severe geopolitical disruptions and regional disasters. While Southeast Asian tech manufacturing and renewable energy infrastructure show upward momentum, these are being countered by surging inflation in specific regions and significant instability in the Himalayan corridor and Middle Eastern…

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The gist: The net direction for EU equities appears to be leaning higher, though the outlook is characterized by significant internal tension. While recent gains in the DAX, CAC 40, and Stoxx 600 have been driven by technology earnings, AI-related productivity potential, and positive signals from Jackson Hole, these upward trends are being countered by fragility in the banking sector, housing-related weakness, and…

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The gist: The energy market shows a conflicting outlook, with a tension between supply tightness and projected increases in global crude availability. While energy-driven inflation and supply risks in Europe (low gas storage and Russian diesel export bans) lean the direction higher, a "historic" agreement regarding Venezuelan oil reserves leans the direction lower for global crude prices.

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The gist: The commodities market shows a fragmented outlook, leaning lower on precious metals due to hawkish US monetary policy shifts, while industrial-driven commodities appear supported by high-tech manufacturing and AI-related export growth. Trade stability in North America is also leaning lower following new US tariffs on Canadian products. Watch: - US Fed policy shifts and their impact on gold prices.

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The gist: The global macro outlook is leaning lower due to significant disruptions in trade, logistics, and emerging market stability, though this is being countered by a lean toward higher global interest rates and inflation.

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The gist: The FX market direction leans lower for emerging market currencies and the Japanese Yen, while US Treasury yields and certain tech-linked sectors show upward momentum. The balance is driven by hawkish Federal Reserve signals regarding inflation, weakening domestic demand in China, and specific macroeconomic headwinds in emerging markets like Chile and Iran.

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