Ações dos EUA enfrentam bifurcação em meio à tensão comercial e mudanças na infraestrutura de IA

The AI Infrastructure Supercycle

A massive structural shift is underway as capital flows aggressively toward artificial intelligence and data infrastructure. Projections suggest data center spending could reach $1.3 trillion by 2026. This trend is supported by large-scale corporate financing and significant institutional interest in the "AI compute" stack, which encompasses semiconductors, memory, networking, and software.

The scale of this investment is reflected in recent corporate actions. Alibaba is launching a record $10 billion share sale, offering 710 million ordinary shares with the intent to direct 100% of net proceeds toward full-stack AI capabilities. In the software space, Oracle recently saw shares rise 3.3% to a high of $148.35, bolstered by an AI infrastructure expansion through a collaboration with Amazon Web Services.This suggests a period of heavy reinvestment where the primary driver of support for large-cap tech is the physical and digital build-out of AI capabilities. While some high-growth names have experienced volatility, the broader macro theme appears driven by these multi-trillion dollar investment cycles.

Capital Reallocation and the Buyback Decline

The method by which large-scale cloud providers, or hyperscalers, deploy their cash is undergoing a fundamental change. There has been a significant pivot from returning capital to shareholders via buybacks toward massive capital expenditure for AI infrastructure. Quarterly stock buybacks from these providers have dropped from a peak of $48 billion in Q4 2021 to just $4.6 billion in Q1 of this year, representing a decline of approximately 90%.

Despite holding hundreds of billions in cash, these firms are prioritizing "building buildings." This redirection of funds indicates that traditional equity support mechanisms, such as aggressive share repurchases, may be offset by this intense reinvestment phase. Furthermore, the $1.65 trillion debt load associated with the top five data centers is being moved into "shadow borrowing" to maintain cleaner balance sheets.This shift suggests a sideways trajectory for US equities as capital moves from shareholder returns to infrastructure. The market is essentially watching to see if these massive capital expenditures can be sustained by operating cash flows or if they will eventually require significant new debt issuance.

Trade Friction and Labor Market Fragility

While the AI theme provides a structural tailwind, the broader US equity market faces significant downward pressure from intensifying trade friction and labor market volatility. A new trade conflict has escalated following the imposition of 50% US tariffs on approximately $20 billion of Canadian imports. This has ended a period of relative calm and raised fears of a "tit-for-tat" trade fight, with Canada threatening retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion of US products set for September 8.

Simultaneously, the labor market is showing signs of fragility. AI-driven restructuring has become a primary driver of US layoffs, accounting for 23% of total job cuts in 2026. This is creating what some analysts describe as a "credit divide" between firms achieving tangible growth through AI and those facing disruption.The combination of potential inflationary pressures from tariffs and the social/economic disruption of AI-related downsizing creates a fragile environment. The market is currently navigating a bifurcated economy where technological advancement and geopolitical/labor headwinds are pulling in opposite directions.

Sector Divergence: Semiconductors vs. Tourism

The current market environment is characterized by sharp divergence between sectors. The semiconductor and tech-adjacent sectors appear particularly fragile. A broad US chip selloff has contributed to significant declines in regional markets, with Samsung and SK hynix slipping 3-4%, which in turn dragged the KOSPI down by over 3%.

In contrast, the travel-related consumer and service sectors are showing unexpected strength. Retail and tourism consumer stocks have demonstrated resilience, supported by significant institutional inflows into business services providers. For example, during the second quarter, BlackRock Inc. purchased a stake in Booking Holdings Inc. valued at approximately $11,646,302,000, while Deutsche Bank AG acquired a position worth roughly $1,691,186,000. Other institutional moves include X Square Capital LLC purchasing 18,910 shares of Booking Holdings Inc. and Cetera Trust Company N.A. investing $1.40 million in the same entity.While the semiconductor sector faces immediate downward momentum, the tourism sector appears to be a beneficiary of consumer resilience or a rotation into consumer-facing themes. The booking sub-sector, in particular, appears more supported by institutional accumulation than the broader hospitality trust space.

What to watch

• The implementation of Canadian retaliatory tariffs scheduled for September 8.
• The results of Alibaba's $10 billion primary follow-on offering.
• The continued trajectory of capital expenditure versus operating cash flow for the five major hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Oracle).
• Potential for further political curbs on data center construction.