Fricciones geopolíticas y demanda récord impulsan la divergencia del mercado energético

US Hydrocarbon Export and Production Momentum

The United States is experiencing a period of significant strength in fossil fuel supply chains and export capabilities. Natural gas production reached an all-time high in July 2026, with gross withdrawals hitting a record 137 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) [2]. This production surge is complemented by robust export activity; U.S. LNG exports averaged 17.4 Bcf/d in the first half of 2026, representing a 23% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [2].

Beyond natural gas, the propane sector has shown notable growth, with exports rising to 2 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first half of 2026—an 11% increase over the previous year [2]. This expansion peaked at a record 2.1 million b/d in April 2026 [2]. This momentum in the U.S. hydrocarbon sector appears supported by high extraction levels in the Permian Basin and increased byproduct availability from gas processing, which helps bridge the price gap between U.S. and Asian markets [2].

Electricity Demand and the Electrification Pivot

Domestic power consumption is trending higher, driven by extreme weather and a structural shift toward electrification. In Texas, the ERCOT hourly peak load reached a new record of 91.1 GW on July 22, 2026, which is 6% higher than the previous peak of 85.5 GW set in August 2023 [1]. This demand remains elevated, with weekly averages recently staying near a record 74.5 GW [3]. The electricity sector is increasingly supported by a mix of natural gas (48%) and solar (32%) to meet these peak loads [1].

This surge in power demand is mirrored by a rapid acceleration in the electric vehicle (EV) market. In September, electric and hybrid vehicle sales reached a record high, accounting for nearly 60% of all new cars sold [5]. Battery electric car sales are currently occurring at a rate of almost five units sold every minute, more than double the rate seen three years ago [5]. This consumer pivot toward electrification appears to be a direct response to soaring fuel costs, particularly as UK diesel prices reached a record £2 per litre [5].

Geopolitical Supply Disruptions and Commodity Volatility

The global energy landscape is facing significant fragility due to escalating geopolitical conflicts. Crude oil shipments from Iran have dropped to zero since February 28, 2026, following a US naval blockade and the redirection of 125 commercial vessels [19]. This disruption in the Middle East is a primary driver of volatility in diesel supplies and broader hydrocarbon prices [5].

In the vegetable oil sector, supply tightness is being driven by domestic policy shifts in Indonesia. The country's B50 biodiesel mandate, aiming for full coverage by October 1, 2026, is expected to absorb between 15.2 million and 16.3 million tonnes of crude palm oil (CPO) annually [18]. This mandate is expected to tighten export surpluses, contributing to price movements such as the 3.44% rise in Indonesia's October reference price for CPO to $1,042.15 per tonne [18].

Energy Services and Infrastructure Outlook

While commodity markets face volatility, the energy services and decarbonization infrastructure sectors show signs of expansion. Corporate activity in this space is leaning higher, evidenced by EARNZ's £23m acquisition of GEM, a move intended to build toward a £130m turnover business specializing in energy, maintenance, and decarbonization [4]. GEM reported a turnover of £30m for the year ending June 2026 [4].

However, the sector is not without risk. The insolvency of long-standing providers, such as the UK-based Gas-Elec, highlights underlying structural fragilities [5]. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions are increasing operating costs for transit operators in regions like Singapore, as higher energy prices impact essential service delivery [7].

Regional Fragilities and Macro Pressures

Energy stability is under threat in several key regions due to both kinetic conflict and macroeconomic shifts. In Ukraine, Russian drone strikes have directly targeted energy infrastructure, including power plants and residential buildings [5]. In Western Europe, the combination of energy-driven inflation and fiscal constraints is complicating economic maneuvers, such as those currently being prepared by the Italian government for 2027 [5].

In Asia, monetary policy shifts are providing mixed signals. In Vietnam, the State Bank has raised the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) ceiling from 85% to 95%, which is expected to relieve capital mobilization pressure for credit institutions but is not anticipated to lower interest rates in the short term [5]. Meanwhile, environmental degradation poses a long-term risk to specific sectors, as Swiss glaciers lost 5.5% of their ice volume in the hydrologic year ending September 30, 2026 [5].

What to watch

• The implementation of Indonesia's new export governance via PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI), starting January 1, 2027 [18].
• The completion of new LNG terminals expected to add a combined 4.0 Bcf/d to nominal U.S. export capacity [2].
• The approval of the Dpfp (public finance programmatic document) in Italy's Council of Ministers [5].
• The "Gateway Gulf" forum in Bahrain, scheduled for November 1-2, 2026, regarding energy system transitions [5].
• Future electricity demand levels in Texas, specifically whether weekly averages remain near the 74.5 GW record [3].