Where markets were leaning on 2026-08-22

The gist: The FX market is leaning lower on North American currency stability and CAD-linked assets due to escalating trade tensions between the US and Canada. While the USD shows potential strength in specific emerging markets like Vietnam, overall risk-on sentiment is pressured by fears of yen carry trade liquidations.

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The gist: The energy market presents a conflicting outlook, with a tension between rising price pressures from geopolitical volatility and downward pressure from inventory builds and local project opposition. While escalating tensions between the U.S.

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The gist: The outlook for US and Western bond yields leans higher, driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions, fiscal pressures, and resilient labor data. While rising debt concerns and yield volatility provide some downward pressure on sovereign bonds, the prevailing momentum is upward, supported by increased Treasury buyback capacity and stronger-than-expected employment figures.

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The gist: The crypto market is leaning higher, driven by massive price rallies, perceived safe-haven status amid geopolitical and debt risks, and significant political influence spending. While regulatory and criminal scrutiny in certain regions provides a downward sentiment drag, the overall balance leans bullish due to extreme single-day price moves and a $500 billion increase in total market capitalization.

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The gist: The global macro outlook is leaning lower, driven by deteriorating North American trade relations and significant headwinds in the tech hardware and labor markets. While US long-term yields are seeing upward pressure and specific pockets of European hospitality demand remain high, these are outweighed by trade tensions, rising semiconductor-dependent sector contraction, and complex US labor market data.

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The gist: Emerging market sentiment is leaning higher, driven primarily by significant, outsized gains in Brazilian equities and strengthening forex reserves in India. While trade themes in high-tech manufacturing and local currency usage among BRICS nations suggest upward momentum, the outlook for tech infrastructure remains somewhat fragile due to geopolitical friction and ESG compliance concerns.

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The gist: The commodities market is leaning higher, driven primarily by surging precious metals and increased geopolitical risk premiums. While some sectors like water-related commodities and global trade remain sideways, the momentum in gold, silver, and energy-transition minerals appears robust due to inflation concerns and supply disruptions.

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The gist: US equities are leaning lower, driven primarily by downward pressure on large-cap technology and heightened macro uncertainty. While the travel sector shows strength in airlines and logistics, the broader market sentiment is weighed down by rising bond market volatility, geopolitical/domestic political instability, and significant insider selling within the tech sector.

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The gist: The net direction for EU-equities appears to be leaning lower, as the upward momentum seen in recent earnings and the DAX's recovery is being countered by significant headwinds. While the commodity sector and recent earnings provided some support, the dominant drivers are escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices, which are fueling concerns over renewed inflationary…

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