Where markets were leaning on 2026-08-23

The gist: The FX market is showing divergent directions, leaning lower for EUR/USD and CAD while leaning higher for CNY/USD. While EUR/USD faces structural resistance following recent rallies, the CAD appears fragile due to escalating trade tensions and retaliatory tariff threats from Canada, and the CNY is seeing significant appreciation despite interest rate differentials.

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The gist: The rates and bonds market is leaning higher on yields and lower on bond prices, driven by surging US Treasury yields and fiscal sustainability concerns. While the US Treasury's plan to double buybacks of 10- to 30-year debt aims to steady the market, the dominant trend is defined by long-dated yields hitting multi-year highs amid rising US debt and geopolitical pressures.

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The gist: The commodities market shows a split direction, with precious metals leaning higher due to monetary policy shifts and debasement trades, while non-ferrous metals also lean higher following strong producer earnings. Conversely, real estate-linked revenue and residential demand are leaning lower, and North American trade stability is leaning lower.

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The gist: The net direction for EU equities leans lower as rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions create inflationary headwinds. While robust German corporate earnings and a drop in US Treasury yields provided a brief reprieve for the DAX, these gains are being weighed against falling diesel imports and rising oil prices driven by Middle East instability.

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The gist: The energy market outlook is conflicted, with a downward lean on trade stability due to heightened geopolitical friction and rising interest rates, while clean energy infrastructure and decentralized solutions show upward momentum.

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The gist: US equities are leaning lower, primarily driven by escalating geopolitical volatility, rising long-term bond yields, and increasing uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policy. While institutional interest in the energy transition space shows strength, this is offset by downward pressure on tech equities and consumer-facing sectors due to trade-driven cost pressures and insider selling.

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The gist: Emerging markets are leaning higher, driven primarily by significant momentum in Brazil and strategic capital deployment in Chinese tech infrastructure. While Brazil is experiencing an outlier surge in buying activity across multiple themes, China shows signs of targeted support in the tech and housing sectors.

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The gist: The global macro outlook is leaning lower, driven by deteriorating trade stability between the U.S. and Canada and weakening labor market sentiment. While energy-transition themes and inflationary pressures (evidenced by rising gold prices) provide some upward momentum, these are countered by contracting tech hardware demand and rising US long-term yields.

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The gist: The crypto market is leaning higher, driven by Bitcoin's significant recovery toward $80,000 and its perceived role as a safe haven amid rising geopolitical risks and U.S. debt concerns. While institutional interest in infrastructure is increasing and political spending in related sectors is surging, the sentiment is tempered by specific security vulnerabilities in certain chains and ongoing law…

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