Gdzie rynki były przechylone 2026-08-13

The gist: The commodities market is showing fragmented directionality, with precious metals and mining M&A activity leaning higher despite recent downward pressure from hawkish Fed signals and energy price declines. While gold and silver have seen upward trends, energy prices are leaning lower following a drop in Brent crude, and agricultural commodities remain sideways due to volatility and drought concerns.

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The gist: The global macro outlook is leaning higher, driven by upward revisions in US earnings expectations, expansion in AI infrastructure, and growth in emerging market gambling revenues. However, this positive momentum is balanced by significant fragilities, including instability in Chinese non-residential real estate, manufacturing disruptions in the automotive sector, and rising global inflationary pressures.

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The gist: EU equities are largely trending sideways as markets consolidate following recent record highs, with major indices like the DAX and CAC 40 showing recent downward momentum. While defense and AI-adjacent industrial/infrastructure themes are leaning higher, these gains are being balanced by weakness in the mining sector and localized consumer liquidity.

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The gist: The energy market is leaning lower, driven by falling oil prices, cooling inflation (PPI), and increased logistics costs stemming from Middle East conflicts. While specialized industrial tech and AI-driven distributed energy infrastructure show signs of upward momentum, these are offset by broader concerns regarding commodity demand and maritime trade profitability.

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The gist: The FX market is showing a fragmented direction, with a lean toward lower G10 and emerging market currencies due to geopolitical uncertainty and rising inflation in specific regions, though the US Dollar remains resilient despite cooling US inflation and declining rate expectations.

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The gist: Emerging markets are showing significant fragility, with the net direction leaning lower due to intense selling in Brazil and rising geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South Asia. While specific niches like Indian large-cap manufacturing and humanoid robotics show upward momentum, these are being offset by broader instability in Latin American equities and global inflationary pressures driven…

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The gist: US equities are leaning higher, driven by easing inflation pressures and strong momentum in AI infrastructure and technology-driven indices. While the energy transition and semiconductor sectors show strength, the overall outlook remains fragile due to potential trade policy shifts, bond market signals, and headwinds in the housing and media/gaming sectors.

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The gist: The crypto market shows a conflicted direction, leaning lower on security and specific altcoin utility but finding support from institutional interest and easing US inflationary pressures. While macro tailwinds from a flat US PPI suggest a higher path for risk assets, this is being countered by a surge in violent thefts, significant exploits, and downward pressure on certain large-cap assets.

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The gist: The outlook for rates and bonds is characterized by conflicting signals, leaning toward lower interest rates and higher bond prices due to decelerating US inflation, but facing upward pressure from global central bank debates and emerging market inflationary pressures.

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