Où les marchés étaient en tendance 2026-08-30

The gist: The outlook for US equities is conflicted, with a lean toward lower performance driven by rising interest rate expectations, persistent inflation, and trade tensions. While large-cap AI infrastructure and tech show strength, these gains are being weighed against energy-driven cost pressures and regulatory headwinds in the healthcare sector.

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The gist: EU equities appear to be leaning higher, characterized by recent gains in indices like the CAC 40 despite underlying GDP stagnation and rate uncertainty. While rising yields are creating downward pressure on valuations in some equity indices, the overall sentiment for the region shows resilience. Watch: - The impact of rate uncertainty and GDP stagnation on European market momentum.

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The gist: The crypto market is showing significant divergence, leaning lower on immediate price action and prediction markets while finding support in macro-hedge themes and institutional infrastructure. While broad assets and mining equities have faced declines, Bitcoin is increasingly behaving as a macro hedge with a high correlation to gold, even as it undergoes a period of consolidation.

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The gist: The rates and bonds market is leaning higher, driven by hawkish central bank signaling in the US and rising yields in Europe. While the Bank of England has maintained rates, the dominant driver is the expectation of higher US interest rates following Fed Chairman Warsh's comments regarding "stubbornly elevated" inflation and the potential for a "decisive confrontation" within the Fed.

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The gist: Emerging markets are showing a fragmented outlook, leaning lower on overall growth and stability due to persistent investment fragility, high inflation, and geopolitical disruptions to trade. While specific sectors like Chinese semiconductor design and certain Latin American residential real estate pockets show upward momentum, these are countered by significant macro headwinds in regions like Iran and…

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The gist: The global macro outlook is leaning higher on inflationary pressures and interest rate sensitivity, driven by rising producer prices and accelerating Eurozone inflation. While energy transition themes are gaining momentum due to fossil fuel supply disruptions, the broader landscape is weighed down by fragility in global trade stability, logistics bottlenecks, and emerging market economic strains.

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The gist: The FX market is leaning lower for emerging market currencies and sideways for major pairs, driven by escalating trade tensions and weakening domestic demand in China. While the Japanese Yen is facing downward pressure against the US Dollar, the overall sentiment for major currencies is weighed down by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical friction.

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The gist: The energy market shows a conflicting outlook, with a tension between supply tightness and projected increases. While geopolitical interventions in Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba, alongside Russian diesel export bans and low EU gas storage levels, lean the sector higher on volatility and profitability, a "historic" agreement for the U.S.

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The gist: The commodities market shows a fragmented outlook, leaning lower on precious metals due to hawkish US monetary policy shifts, while industrial/tech-driven commodities appear supported by strong AI-related export growth in Taiwan. Trade stability in North America is also leaning lower following the imposition of a 50% tariff on Canadian products by the US President.

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