Où les marchés étaient en tendance 2026-09-01

The gist: The energy market is leaning higher, driven primarily by geopolitical supply risks and escalating military conflict between the US and Iran. While specific energy-related consumer inputs like diesel in Guatemala have seen decreases, these are outweighed by surging crude oil prices and US gasoline prices exceeding $4.00 per gallon for the month of August, which are contributing to energy-driven inflation.

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The gist: The global macro landscape is leaning higher on inflation and sovereign yields, driven by surging crude oil prices and hawkish central bank policy. While energy transition and defense sectors show upward momentum, the broader outlook is tempered by downward pressure on housing affordability, manufacturing stability, and global trade. Watch: - Rising global government bond yields and the U.S.

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The gist: The FX outlook is leaning lower for emerging market currencies and risk-sensitive assets, driven by heightened geopolitical and trade volatility. While certain emerging market inflows are supported by economic dynamism in specific regions like Spain, the broader sentiment is weighed down by oil-driven cost shocks and weakness in the Chinese real estate sector.

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The gist: Emerging markets are showing a bifurcated direction, with a net lean toward lower sentiment driven by geopolitical instability in the Middle East and regulatory shifts in Chinese real estate. While energy transition infrastructure and Chinese innovative pharmaceuticals show upward momentum, these are being weighed against broader caution caused by rising oil prices and supply-side risks.

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The gist: US equities are leaning lower as high borrowing costs, rising inflation anxiety, and bond yield pressure weigh on indices. While large-cap growth and AI-driven sectors have shown recent quarterly strength, they currently face significant volatility, geopolitical friction, and a "warning" regarding potential sector crashes.

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The gist: The market is leaning higher on global bond yields and interest rates, driven by a global bond sell-off and rising inflation expectations. While ECB policy outlook appears sideways, the broader consensus across inflation, geopolitics, and US jobs data suggests a move toward higher borrowing costs, which is exerting downward pressure on rates-sensitive sectors like housing and renewable infrastructure.

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The gist: The outlook for EU equities is leaning lower, driven by geopolitical escalations in the Middle East and rising yields. This downward momentum is supported by rapid, outsized selling in the broad EU equities market (VGK), which moved -1.0% in a single day on 2026-09-01. Watch: - Rising energy costs, specifically Brent oil trading around $91 per barrel, and rising bond yields.

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The gist: The crypto market is leaning higher, driven primarily by robust institutional adoption, blockchain infrastructure development, and significant price momentum. While macro headwinds and hawkish shifts in inflation expectations have caused some sideways movement and short-term price slips, the overall balance leans bullish due to institutional integration and large-scale asset acquisitions.

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The gist: The commodities market shows a fragmented outlook with energy and agricultural themes leaning higher, while precious metals face downward pressure. While geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and rising Brent crude prices suggest energy strength, gold is facing a near-term decline following hawkish Fed commentary that has increased rate hike expectations.

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