Where markets were leaning on 2026-08-04
The net read we published that day, kept as a dated record. For where markets are leaning right now, see today's outlook.
Global Macro
The gist: Global macro sentiment is currently fragmented, with US equity markets reaching new records driven by earnings resilience and AI themes, even as rising long-term financing costs weigh on housing stability.
Updated 2026-08-04 23:45 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Commodities
The gist: The commodities market shows a split direction, leaning higher for precious metals, critical minerals, and semiconductor-related materials, while leaning lower for energy and industrial raw material exports.
Updated 2026-08-04 23:45 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Rates Bonds
The gist: The rates and bonds market is experiencing conflicting pressures, resulting in a sideways to leaning lower direction for yields as geopolitical optimism and softening US manufacturing data compete with rising inflation expectations.
Updated 2026-08-04 23:45 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Energy
The gist: The energy market is experiencing conflicting directional signals, with a tension between rising commodity prices driven by geopolitical conflict and sudden downward price volatility. While oil company profitability appears supported by "banner profits" and rising crude prices linked to the Iran conflict, recent sessions have seen significant drops in Brent and WTI crude prices following a reduction in…
Updated 2026-08-04 23:22 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Fx
The gist: The FX market is showing conflicting signals, leaning sideways overall due to divergent geopolitical and economic pressures. While there is a potential lean lower for the US Dollar and a leaning higher for the Euro supported by falling energy costs, these are countered by reports of US Treasury "currency activism" involving the sale of Euros to support the Japanese Yen, which has pressured the EUR/JPY…
Updated 2026-08-04 23:21 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Crypto
The gist: The crypto market is showing a mixed, sideways-to-volatile bias as institutional infrastructure gains compete with significant corporate selling and declining retail activity. While potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and expanding digital utility in real estate provide upward pressure, these are being countered by large-scale Bitcoin liquidations and a sharp drop in South Korean trading volumes.
Updated 2026-08-04 23:21 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Eu Equities
The gist: EU equities are leaning higher, driven by record-breaking performance in major indices and a surge in investor sentiment. The momentum is characterized by significant buying pressure in Germany and across the Eurozone, with index moves described as being far outside their normal ranges. Watch: - The sustainability of record highs in the DAX and EURO STOXX 50 following recent outsized gains.
Updated 2026-08-04 23:21 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Emerging Markets
The gist: The emerging markets outlook leans higher, driven primarily by significant upward momentum in Indian equities and a broader regional rally. While industrial sectors in Brazil and consumer/sovereign debt sectors in Latin America appear fragile, the strength in India—supported by residential real estate growth and strong corporate earnings—is currently the dominant market driver.
Updated 2026-08-04 23:03 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
Us Equities
The gist: US equities are leaning higher, characterized by a significant rally toward new record highs driven by robust corporate earnings, momentum in the tech and AI sectors, and geopolitical optimism. While volatility remains elevated due to upcoming labor and manufacturing data, the market is currently defined by rapid buying, with the S&P 500 and SPY both closing +1.8% on 2026-08-04—a move noted as being far…
Updated 2026-08-04 23:02 UTC · sign up for the full net read + the markets you follow
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