Où les marchés étaient en tendance 2026-08-12

The gist: Emerging markets are leaning lower, driven primarily by significant volatility and rapid selling in Brazil and a fragile outlook for Chinese real estate and travel. While some localized pockets of strength exist in corporate earnings and specific renewable energy developments, the dominant sentiment is weighed down by heavy weather-related disruptions in China and broader regional instability.

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The gist: The outlook for rates and bonds leans lower as cooling US inflation data aligns with expectations, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may maintain current policy stances. While US mortgage rates have retreated to 6.77%, the broader bond market environment is being shaped by a tug-of-war between easing US inflation and significant downward pressure on the Japanese Yen.

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The gist: Global macro direction is characterized by a lean toward lower US inflation and higher momentum in AI-driven technology and renewable energy infrastructure. However, the overall outlook remains sideways as markets balance these gains against localized labor market shifts and systemic infrastructure challenges.

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The gist: US equities are facing a tug-of-war between cooling inflation, which is leaning the market higher, and labor market fragility and geopolitical instability, which are leaning the market lower. While cooling inflation data (3.4% in July) has provided upward support, the balance is tempered by a "softer than expected" NFP report driven by government job losses and heightened Middle East tensions.

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The gist: The FX market is experiencing conflicting pressures, creating a tug-of-war between cooling US inflation and geopolitical risk. While cooling US CPI data initially pressured the US Dollar lower, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are driving "risk-off" sentiment that supports the USD while weighing on the Euro and several emerging market currencies.

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The gist: The commodities landscape is leaning higher, driven primarily by strength in precious metals and critical minerals. Gold is seeing upward momentum fueled by shifting Fed expectations, geopolitical tensions, and US inflation data, while the energy transition sector is supported by significant resource expansion in rare earth elements.

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The gist: The energy market is experiencing conflicting pressures, with a tilt toward higher volatility and divergence between sectors. While geopolitical friction and supply route risks are driving crude oil prices higher, there is a simultaneous lean toward lower energy-driven inflation and a massive structural shift toward clean energy investment, which is currently outpacing fossil fuel investment two-to-one.

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The gist: The net direction for EU equities appears sideways to leaning higher, characterized by a "calme plat" (flat calm) as markets consolidate near record highs. While the DAX has reached new record levels and shows strength in technology-linked infrastructure, broader indices appear fragile or mixed, with sentiment tempered by uncertainty regarding central bank policy and upcoming inflation data.

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The gist: The crypto market shows a fragmented outlook with a lean toward lower momentum, driven by cooling Ethereum accumulation and losses in crypto-adjacent corporate ventures. While institutional adoption via U.S. spot ETFs and specific regulatory approvals in Russia provide support, these are being offset by Bitcoin's immediate price resistance and a contraction in the workforce of crypto service providers.

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