Où les marchés étaient en tendance 2026-08-14

The gist: The energy market is leaning higher for oil prices and traditional energy/nuclear capacity, though it faces significant fragility regarding overall stability and the energy transition. While supply-side tensions in the Middle East and Hormuz region are driving oil prices upward, geopolitical risks, drone attacks on tankers, and large-scale power outages in Central Asia are weighing on energy security and…

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The gist: The global macro outlook is conflicted, with a downward lean for broad equity markets and emerging market assets due to slumping US retail sales and a significant losing streak in Brazil's Ibovespa. However, this is countered by upward momentum in specific sectors, including renewable energy infrastructure, Chinese internet services, and regional housing demand in Panama.

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The gist: The US Dollar is leaning lower as fading expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike—driven by weak retail sales and declining consumer sentiment—weaken its recent momentum. While the USD shows signs of fragility, performance is divergent across currency pairs: it is leaning higher against certain emerging market currencies like the Peruvian Sol and Colombian Peso, but leaning lower against the GBP,…

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The gist: US equities are leaning lower as geopolitical instability and weakening macro data outweigh recent record highs. While AI-related infrastructure shows strength, the broader market faces fragility driven by a significant drop in July retail sales and declining consumer sentiment. Watch: - Macro data releases regarding consumer demand and retail trends.

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The gist: The commodities market is showing divergent, sector-specific momentum, with precious metals and energy leaning higher due to geopolitical instability and supply constraints, while agricultural commodities face conflicting pressures from rising vegetable prices and lower grain yields. Energy-transition commodities appear to be moving sideways amid a lack of substantive data.

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The gist: The crypto market is showing a divergence between bearish price action and bullish structural development. While Bitcoin faces downward pressure and heavy bearish technical signals, the underlying sector is leaning higher due to expanding institutional infrastructure and tokenized adoption.

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The gist: EU equities are trending sideways as regional performance remains highly fragmented. While German equities appear supported by record-breaking DAX fundamentals and easing inflation/interest rate concerns, broader European indices are leaning lower due to a "dispersed order" of declines across the CAC 40, FTSE, and EuroStoxx 50, compounded by general market restraint and emerging trade tensions.

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The gist: The outlook for US rates is leaning lower as signs of economic weakening, specifically a sharp 0.6% decline in U.S. retail sales, emerge. While geopolitical instability is providing upward pressure on yields and commodities, the broader trend suggests a move toward lower rates supported by stable liquidity conditions despite the Federal Reserve's decision to halt Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) through…

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The gist: Emerging markets are showing a fragmented direction, with a strong upward lean in technology, energy commodities, and energy transition infrastructure, while housing and certain consumer sectors face downward pressure.

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