Où les marchés étaient en tendance 2026-08-15

The gist: US equities appear to be in a state of tension, with a tug-of-war between strong AI-driven momentum in semiconductors and downward pressure from geopolitical volatility and institutional trimming of big tech. While AI-related themes and memory sectors show signs of leaning higher, broader equity markets face headwinds from energy supply risks and a difficult hiring market for labor-intensive sectors.

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The gist: The global macro outlook is leaning lower as growth signals weaken and trade stability faces threats from escalating tariff tensions. While energy commodities are trending higher due to geopolitical volatility in the Strait of Hormuz, equities appear fragile, pressured by declining US consumer sentiment, unexpected retail sales contractions, and rising fuel costs.

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The gist: The crypto market is leaning lower as major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have experienced weekly declines, with Bitcoin specifically testing levels below $63,000. While digital infrastructure and mining-related equities show upward momentum driven by revenue gains, this strength appears fragile due to the downward pressure on underlying asset valuations.

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The gist: FX direction is characterized by significant divergence, leaning lower for the USD and JPY while showing strength in the KRW and MXN. While some emerging market currencies like the MXN appear sideways, others like the KRW are trending higher, and the USD faces downward pressure due to shifting Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and declining US consumer demand.

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The gist: The commodities market shows a leaning higher direction, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions impacting energy and industrial metals, alongside rising food and agricultural prices. While precious metals are trending higher due to shifting Federal Reserve expectations, energy prices are facing upward pressure from significant disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

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The gist: The energy market is experiencing conflicting pressures, though the balance leans higher due to escalating geopolitical risk premiums and rising oil prices linked to instability in the Strait of Hormuz.

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The gist: The outlook for rates and bonds is leaning lower, driven by cooling US inflation and an unexpected 0.6% month-on-month drop in July retail sales. While geopolitical tensions and fiscal liquidity needs provide sideways pressure, the combination of soft inflation data and weaker employment reports is increasing market expectations for a September rate cut. Watch: - US retail sales and inflation data trends.

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The gist: The emerging markets outlook leans higher, driven by advancements in regional healthcare infrastructure, specialized medical technology, and strengthening intra-BRICS trade connectivity. While semiconductor manufacturing in China shows significant upward momentum, this is partially offset by concerns regarding labor stability and social cohesion in India, as well as fragility in US-China trade relations.

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The gist: EU equities are showing a fragmented direction, with a lean toward higher performance in defense, travel, and specific large-cap German sectors, while semiconductor and automotive-linked equities lean lower. While the DAX has reached new closing records driven by rising corporate profits, broader European equities and the tech/industrial sectors appear to be moving sideways.

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