Où les marchés étaient en tendance 2026-08-17

The gist: Emerging markets are showing a fragmented direction, with momentum leaning higher in AI-related hardware, semiconductor materials, and specific labor markets like India. However, this is being countered by significant downward pressure from China's contracting real estate sector and escalating infectious disease risks in the DRC, leading to a cautious or sideways outlook for broader trade, travel, and…

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The gist: The rates and bonds market is leaning lower on US interest rate expectations due to easing inflation and weaker retail sales, though long-end yields face upward pressure from fiscal concerns. While global growth prospects appear fragile—evidenced by disappointing Japanese GDP and rising real estate sensitivity—APAC bond market demand shows strength through record-high "kangaroo" bond sales.

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The gist: The crypto market is leaning higher, driven by significant, out-of-range volatility in Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which saw a +2.4% move on 2026-08-17. While the broad market shows upward momentum, the overall landscape remains mixed with sideways movement in altcoin market capitalizations and high fragility in certain segments due to technical divergence and regulatory shifts.

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The gist: The US Dollar is leaning lower against major peers, Asian currencies, and emerging market trade corridors. This downward pressure is being driven by a combination of geopolitical shifts impacting the USD's safety status, the adoption of the Chinese yuan in African trade, and significant capital outflows in specific emerging markets.

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The gist: The commodities market is leaning higher, driven by geopolitical risk premiums in energy and gold, alongside robust demand for industrial metals and critical minerals. While Chinese macro indicators suggest a slowdown in labor and retail stability, this is being offset by rising oil prices, record-level demand projections for electrification materials in India, and significant price appreciation in metals…

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The gist: The outlook for US equities is leaning lower as broad indices face a confluence of macro headwinds, including a weakening labor market, geopolitical friction regarding Iran's nuclear program, and rising Brent crude prices.

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The gist: The global macro outlook leans lower as persistent inflationary pressures, high borrowing costs, and declining consumer indicators weigh on growth prospects. While specific sectors like regional sports and event-driven tourism show upward momentum, these are offset by significant headwinds in consumer purchasing power, municipal fiscal stability, and aviation costs.

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The gist: The energy market is leaning higher, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical risks involving Iran and the U.S., which have jolted oil prices upward. This upward momentum is reinforced by rising inflation-linked pressures stemming from increased gasoline costs and fuel rationing in certain Russian regions, alongside significant capital deployment in renewable infrastructure and solar/storage capacity.

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The gist: EU equities are displaying a sideways to leaning lower bias as markets enter a period of summer lethargy characterized by investor reluctance to take significant positions. While the DAX remains within its record range and the EuroStoxx stays close to record highs, downward pressure from a retreat in the luxury sector and disappointing economic indicators from China has weighed on indices like the CAC 40.

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