Où les marchés étaient en tendance 2026-09-05

The gist: The global macro outlook is leaning higher for inflation and interest rate pressures, driven by escalating Middle East geopolitical instability and rising energy costs. While US labor strength and AI-related manufacturing growth provide upward momentum in specific sectors, the broader sentiment leans lower for risk assets and global commodity stability due to trade tensions and volatility in Asian…

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The gist: Emerging markets are leaning higher, driven primarily by significant momentum in China and Hong Kong equities and strong trade performance in East Asia. While global money market funds saw a massive $46.1 billion weekly inflow as investors sought cash amid rising tensions, the dominant trend is characterized by rapid buying in China/Hong Kong and record-breaking export figures from South Korea.

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The gist: The FX market is showing conflicting signals, with a lean toward USD weakness against the JPY due to potential shifts in capital flows and dovish Fed commentary, balanced against upward pressure from strong US labor data and rising inflation. While the USD index recently hit a 1.5-week low, the net direction remains uncertain as rising Japanese interest rates may drive a move from U.S.

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The gist: The rates and bonds market is currently characterized by a tug-of-war between upward and downward pressures, resulting in a net sideways direction driven by heightened uncertainty. While robust U.S. job growth and persistent 3.4% inflation lean rates higher, these pressures are being countered by potential geopolitical easing that could lower energy costs and a cooling U.S. housing market.

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The gist: The crypto market shows a complex, mixed direction with a slight lean toward higher momentum for major assets and crypto-linked equities, though this is tempered by macro and regulatory headwinds. While Bitcoin has seen significant monthly gains and capital is reportedly rotating from AI stocks into Bitcoin and ETFs, strong US employment data has previously pressured price levels, and increasing regulatory…

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The gist: The outlook for EU equities leans lower, driven by a weekly decline in the Stoxx 600 and broader geopolitical tensions. While specific sub-sectors like maritime and UK healthcare infrastructure show upward momentum, these are offset by a fragile automotive sector and downward pressure in tech-oriented equities. Watch: - Geopolitical volatility and reports regarding Russia's use of chemical weapons.

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The gist: US-equities appear to be moving sideways as conflicting drivers create a tug-of-war between high-margin AI/tech growth and macro-driven fragility. While AI-driven enterprise software and semiconductor demand show strength, the market faces downward pressure from seasonal valuation concerns, rising interest rate fears following a strong jobs report, and institutional selling in specific semiconductor names.

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The gist: The commodities market is showing significant divergence, with energy commodities leaning higher due to geopolitical conflict, while precious metals face conflicting pressures. While US labor strength and jobs data are driving a selloff in global gold and silver, domestic gold prices have shown resilience, and energy prices (Brent and WTI) have seen substantial increases.

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The gist: The energy market direction is leaning higher, primarily driven by escalating geopolitical volatility and supply risk premiums stemming from tensions in strategic maritime corridors like the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

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